Now that Barack Obama has finally announced his precocious candidacy for the US Presidency, sections of the Kenya media will be agog with every development. Many Kenyans understandably have pride in his Kenyan connection via his father but will probably make the mistake of analysing his prospects through the usual lenses employed in local politics. These are always firmly fixed on identity obsessions (i.e. tribalism). Thus Kenyan commentators are already fixating on race identity, gloomily wondering if Americans will ever elect a "black" President.
They will miss the fact that Americans by and large are keen to vote for a black President which would, they hope, finally put the bear of race into a long and perhaps terminal hibernation. What many can't differentiate is that being "black" is not sufficient on it's own. Policies in the USA, unlike simple identity poltics in Kenya, actually count. Colin Powell might well have won the Presidency but that does not mean Al Sharpton or Jesse Jackson would. The same holds for Obama, who leans far left of the political spectrum when most Americans are moderate or even centre-right. Americans are not at all against a "black" candidate - the question is, which one and is it a figure like Obama?
Obama may also have a harder time capturing the African-American vote than his formidable rivals like Hilary Clinton. He is not actually a "black" candidate at all, unless one accepts the basic racism inherent in the idea that a white woman can always give birth to a black child, but a black woman can never give birth to white one. Blacks in America appear upset that Obama has had a privileged childhood, exotic and international and not at all one that took in the historical sufferings of African-Americans, as they see it.
How does this likeable young man position himself? He cannot move towards the centre of US political ideas, as that is already occupied firmly by Clinton and other Democratic prospects. To do so would fatally undermine his credibility, as he would find it impossible to explain away his leftist positions on everything from Iraq to healthcare. The possibility will be that he ends up the candidate of the moonbat left, the liberal media and Hollywood elites- already Stephen Spielberg has jumped ship to raise money for him. This is hardly a base which will carry him to the Presidency unless the US veers so far left as to cause the greatest shift in modern political history. That is not going to happen.
Is he ready for prime time? His tasteless jibes at Australia's John Howard, where he attacked and ridiculed a staunch ally of the USA shows in the very infancy of his run that he seems determined to appease America's enemies and insult it's best friends. Asking Australia to "ginny up" and provide a further 20,000 troops to Iraq is just the first error to show his absolute inexperience, beyond a couple of years as a junior Senator. It's early days yet, but the chances are Obama will discover that Americans would be much happier voting for a non-white candidate who shows reliable centrism or even mildly rightist policy ideas than the narrow voter base he is obviously reaching for.
They will miss the fact that Americans by and large are keen to vote for a black President which would, they hope, finally put the bear of race into a long and perhaps terminal hibernation. What many can't differentiate is that being "black" is not sufficient on it's own. Policies in the USA, unlike simple identity poltics in Kenya, actually count. Colin Powell might well have won the Presidency but that does not mean Al Sharpton or Jesse Jackson would. The same holds for Obama, who leans far left of the political spectrum when most Americans are moderate or even centre-right. Americans are not at all against a "black" candidate - the question is, which one and is it a figure like Obama?
Obama may also have a harder time capturing the African-American vote than his formidable rivals like Hilary Clinton. He is not actually a "black" candidate at all, unless one accepts the basic racism inherent in the idea that a white woman can always give birth to a black child, but a black woman can never give birth to white one. Blacks in America appear upset that Obama has had a privileged childhood, exotic and international and not at all one that took in the historical sufferings of African-Americans, as they see it.
How does this likeable young man position himself? He cannot move towards the centre of US political ideas, as that is already occupied firmly by Clinton and other Democratic prospects. To do so would fatally undermine his credibility, as he would find it impossible to explain away his leftist positions on everything from Iraq to healthcare. The possibility will be that he ends up the candidate of the moonbat left, the liberal media and Hollywood elites- already Stephen Spielberg has jumped ship to raise money for him. This is hardly a base which will carry him to the Presidency unless the US veers so far left as to cause the greatest shift in modern political history. That is not going to happen.
Is he ready for prime time? His tasteless jibes at Australia's John Howard, where he attacked and ridiculed a staunch ally of the USA shows in the very infancy of his run that he seems determined to appease America's enemies and insult it's best friends. Asking Australia to "ginny up" and provide a further 20,000 troops to Iraq is just the first error to show his absolute inexperience, beyond a couple of years as a junior Senator. It's early days yet, but the chances are Obama will discover that Americans would be much happier voting for a non-white candidate who shows reliable centrism or even mildly rightist policy ideas than the narrow voter base he is obviously reaching for.
2 comments:
yeah, for the time being Americans are rallying around Hillary & Obama- and many hope that they will soon tire of both... leaving several other choices to draw from....
Agree that this has nothing to do w/ American voters unwillingness to elect a black (or woman, hispanic, etc.) person for President... Americans want to dig a bit deeper than skin color... will be interesting to see who emerges in the months ahead (California will play a much bigger role, as their primary has been advanced to Feb. 08 -rather than the old June timeframe)....
...good comments, but keep in mind that many Americans would rather elect ANYONE else other than Hillary - and I think that Obama will garner a good deal of support - as the lesser of 2 evils choice (which, I think Americans may be willing to live with?!!)...
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